Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
