Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
